A safe return to a 1° world is not only necessary, but possible and economically sensible.
In order to bring Earth to safe Holocene levels below 350 ppm atmospheric CO2, and 1° C warming above pre-industrial levels, a plan for a concerted economic and social transformation towards a fossil-free future is needed.
We are proving this can be achieved with 100% affordable clean energy, clean materials and greener, more diverse landscapes acting as carbon sinks, all on time to avoid overshooting tipping points.
What is the Holocene?
The Holocene is a 1° world, with a CO2 concentration of less than 350 ppm, which is necessary for human society to live safely on Earth.
Human civilization has flourished during the last 10,000 years in this very stable climate period - the Holocene.
Right now we are well off the mark. Current global policy is projected to result in about 2.7°C warming above pre-industrial levels.
"We are on the highway to climate hell"
UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the 2022 World Climate Conference
Negotiations failing big
In the last 30 years the amount of human-emitted CO2 has doubled, representing a collective failure of the world’s leaders to rise to Margaret Thatcher’s 1989 global call to action
- John Lang and Fiona Harvey
Current governmental plans to stop the Earth further heating up are by far insufficient. Humanity needs an effective plan which can be deployed on time.
On the way to 2.7° we risk irreversible change
Many tipping points in the Earth's system are close to their temperature thresholds. Once surpassed, a further increase in the average temperature will become irreversible with catastrophic consequences.
"Please help me, show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves."
COP28 president Ahmed al-Jaber at an online event on 21 November hosted by She Changes Climate
Cutting-edge models
The Holocene Project team has assembled world-leading scientists and institutions to develop cutting-edge energy and carbon-sink models, considering a wide array of proven technologies and addressing social needs.
This Holocene Study will allow us to compute optimal collaborative paths to less than 350 ppm and 1 ° warming that are both economically and socially viable for 800 regions across the globe. We will propose these tailored strategies to key policymakers around the world, paving the way for comprehensive and effective social transition.
This kind of work has not yet been done on such a granular and global scale, but is absolutely necessary to facilitate the timely phase-out of fossil fuels and reduction of CO2 concentration, preventing irreversible climate breakdown.
The Holocene Study
The Holocene Study is a collaboration between some of the most capable researchers globally, with the objective to find a timely global, efficient, low investment pathway to
reduce the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere to safe levels below 350 ppm (climate safety) and
achieve a sustainable global society (clean energy prosperity) with zero emissions.
It is the only one of its kind pursuing a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm, while minimising the risks of the tipping points. It is also unique in having global net-zero emission targets for 2030, 2035 and 2040, which increases the probability of staying under 1,5° global warming.
The study will enable policy makers in all regions to implement accelerated zero emission roadmaps to 350 ppm incorporating:
100% clean, renewable energy in abundance for all regions of the world, not only for rich countries;
a circular economy with zero waste and zero emissions;
regenerative agriculture and forestry producing affordable, healthy food for everyone; storable and sustainable bioenergy; sustainable construction materials; and naturally sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere by photosynthesis.
The solar energy potential (23,000 TW) alone is more than 1,000 times the current energy consumption worldwide (16 TW). The combination of wind, solar and storage energy is already the cheapest energy available!
"The door is still open for a safe landing of humanity"
Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström at Senckenberg Distinguished Lecture in November 2023
The Holocene Project strives to be a transformative force in international negotiations.
By showcasing that global sustainable transformation is not only still possible but actually economically sensible, we aim to redefine the narrative and inspire positive action worldwide.
To achieve this, the Holocene Project needs an annual funding commitment of $2.1 million for 2024, and additionally $3,3 yearly for 2025-2029.
Institutions of the Holocene Study
Scientists of the Holocene Study
Prof. Dr. Ing. Christian Breyer
is leading the further development of LUT-ESTM to version 2.0, including carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies.
Prof. Dr. Christian von Hirschhausen and
Dr. Konstantin Löffler
are leading the needed enhancements of GENeSYS-MOD, which is an application of OSeMOSYS.
Prof. Dr. David Chiaramonti
from the Politecnico di Torino University is leading the implementation of natural carbon sink modelling in cooperation with Purdue University.
Prof. Dr. Pao-Yu Oei
is leading the socioeconomic analysis in multiple dimensions, focusing on research and education on the transition from fossil energy towards 100% renewable energy.
Prof. Dr. Bernhard Dalheimer
is co-leading the global modeling of natural carbon sinks.
Dr. Christoph Gerhards
is co-leading the further development of LUT-ESTM to version 2.0, including carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies.
People and institutions backing up
Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert
is the head of the Energy, Transport and Environment Department at the German Institute for Economic Research and Professor at Leuphana University Lüneburg.
Hans-Josef Fell
is a former member of the German Parliament and author of the first draft of the successful German Renewable Energy Act (EEG), which has been replicated in many other countries and boosted the renewable technology worldwide. Nowadays renewable electricity is the cheapest.
Prof. Dr. Mark Z. Jacobson
is a professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University, director of the Atmosphere/Energy Program, senior fellow of the Woods Institute for the Environment, senior fellow of the Precourt Institute for Energy, and co-founder of The Solutions Project and the 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Movement.
People backing up
Prof. Dr. Eicke Weber
Prof. emeritus, Univ. of California, Berkeley, and Freiburg Univ.
Head of the BVMW Commission for Energy and Sustainable Economy
Founding co-Chair (`29-`24) European Solar Manufacturing Council ESMC
Founding President (`13-`16), German Federal Association for Energy Storage BVES
Director ('06-'16) Fraunhofer Institut for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Freiburg
Founding president (`02-`24), German Scholars Association (GSO)
Prof. Dr. Andrew Blakers
is a Professor of Engineering at the Australian National University. He has published approximately 300 papers and patents in the areas of silicon photovoltaic solar cells and solar energy systems and led the team that developed PERC silicon solar cell technology, which currently has approximately 30% of the worldwide solar market and cumulative module sales of around $30 billion (mid-2018).
Jochen Wermuth
is an economist and climate impact investor committed to investing in large-scale projects with positive impacts on reversing climate change. He is the managing partner of Wermuth Asset Management GmbH, co-founder of the $40 trillion DivestInvest investor organization, serves on the Investment Committee of Germany’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, KENFO, and is the Chair of Solar Foundry.