A Master Plan for saving Human Civilization by cooling down the Earth back to its planetary boundary

In order to bring Earth to safe Holocene levels below 350 ppm atmospheric CO2, and 1° C warming above pre-industrial levels, a plan for a concerted economic and social transformation towards a fossil-free future is needed.


We are proving this can be achieved with 100% affordable clean energy, clean materials and greener, more diverse landscapes acting as carbon sinks, all on time to avoid overshooting tipping points.

What is the Holocene?

The Holocene is a world with a CO2 concentration of less than 350 ppm, which corresponds to a temperature of less than 1°C above the reference period 1850-1900 before the industrial revolution.

This is necessary for human society to live safely on Earth (planetary boundary). Human civilization has flourished during the last 10,000 years in this very stable climate period - the Holocene.

Right now we are well off the mark. Current global policy is projected to result in about 2.7°C warming above pre-industrial levels.

"We are on the highway to climate hell" 

UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the 2022 World Climate Conference

Figure is from A short history of the successes and failures of the international climate change negotiations by Mark Maslin, John Lang and Fiona Harvey under the CC-BY license. Figure has been modified by the Holocene Project team.

Negotiations failing big

In the last 30 years the amount of human-emitted CO2 has doubled, representing a collective failure of the world’s leaders to rise to Margaret Thatcher’s 1989 global call to action
- John Lang and Fiona Harvey

Current governmental plans to stop the Earth further heating up are by far insufficient. Humanity needs an effective plan which can be deployed on time.

Despite intensive climate negotiations, the planetary boundary was exceeded in 1990 and the temperature continues to rise unabated. 

The geographical distribution of global and regional tipping elements, color-coded according to the best estimate for their temperature thresholds, beyond which the element would likely be 'tipped'. Figure designed at PIK under the CC-BY license, based on Armstrong McKay et al., Science (2022), modified by EduClimate.org with the text in red.

On the way to 2.7° we risk irreversible change

Many tipping elements in the Earth‘s system are close to their temperature thresholds. Once surpassed, a further increase in the average temperature of the Earth will become irreversible, with catastrophic consequences. Climate scientists declare 1° as the planetary boundary. 

"Please help me, show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves."

COP28 president Ahmed al-Jaber at an online event on 21 November hosted by She Changes Climate

Cutting-edge models


The Holocene Project team has assembled world-leading scientists and institutions to develop cutting-edge energy and carbon-sink models, considering a wide array of proven technologies and addressing social needs

This Holocene Study will allow us to compute optimal collaborative paths to less than 350 ppm and 1 ° warming that are both economically and socially viable for 800 regions across the globe. We will propose these tailored strategies to key policymakers around the world, paving the way for comprehensive and effective social transition. 

This kind of work has not yet been done on such a granular and global scale, but is absolutely necessary to facilitate the timely phase-out of fossil fuels and reduction of CO2 concentration, preventing irreversible climate breakdown

The Holocene Study

The Holocene Study is a collaboration between some of the most capable researchers globally, with the objective to find a timely global, efficient, low investment pathway to

It is the only one of its kind pursuing a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm, while minimising the risks of the tipping points. It is also unique in having global net-zero emission targets for 2030, 2035 and 2040, which increases the probability of staying under 1,5° global warming. 

The study will enable policy makers in all regions to implement accelerated zero emission roadmaps to 350 ppm incorporating: 

The solar energy potential (23,000 TW) alone is more than 1,000 times the current energy consumption worldwide (16 TW). The combination of wind, solar and storage energy is already the cheapest energy available!

"The door is still open for a safe landing of humanity"

Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström at Senckenberg Distinguished Lecture in November 2023

The Holocene Project strives to be a transformative force in international negotiations. 

By showcasing that global sustainable transformation is not only still possible but actually economically sensible, we aim to redefine the narrative and inspire positive action worldwide.

To achieve this, the Holocene Project needs an annual funding commitment of $2.1 million for 2024, and additionally $3,3 yearly for 2025-2029.

The Holocene Study compared to other studies 

Today‘s most ambitious pathways aim for climate neutrality in 2045 or later, destabilizing the Earth climate system further beyond its planetary boundary of 1°. 

Except for the Holocene Study, all others overshoot the planetary boundary of 350 ppm, risking irreversible catastrophic consequences. In addition, these studies neglect the socio-economic and socio-political challenges of these needed transitions. 

Top 2% scientists in the team 

Prof. C. Breyer 

LUT University, Finland 

Prof. C. von Hirschhausen 

TU Berlin, Germany 

Prof. D. Chiaramonti

 Politecnico di Torino, Italy 

Supported by top 2% scientists and a senior political advisor

Prof. E. Weber Ex Chief of Fraunhofer ISE, Germany 

Prof. C. Kemfert DIW, Germany 

Prof. M. Jacobson Stanford University USA 

Prof. A. Blakers National University of Australia (ANU) 

Hans-Josef Fell Member German Parliament 1998-2013