A Master Plan for saving Human Civilization by cooling down the Earth back to its planetary boundary
In order to bring Earth to safe Holocene levels below 350 ppm atmospheric CO2, and 1° C warming above pre-industrial levels, a plan for a concerted economic and social transformation towards a fossil-free future is needed.
We are proving this can be achieved with 100% affordable clean energy, clean materials and greener, more diverse landscapes acting as carbon sinks, all on time to avoid overshooting tipping points.
What is the Holocene?
The Holocene is a world with a CO2 concentration of less than 350 ppm, which corresponds to a temperature of less than 1°C above the reference period 1850-1900 before the industrial revolution.
This is necessary for human society to live safely on Earth (planetary boundary). Human civilization has flourished during the last 10,000 years in this very stable climate period - the Holocene.
Right now we are well off the mark. Current global policy is projected to result in about 2.7°C warming above pre-industrial levels.
"We are on the highway to climate hell"
UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the 2022 World Climate Conference
Negotiations failing big
In the last 30 years the amount of human-emitted CO2 has doubled, representing a collective failure of the world’s leaders to rise to Margaret Thatcher’s 1989 global call to action
- John Lang and Fiona Harvey
Current governmental plans to stop the Earth further heating up are by far insufficient. Humanity needs an effective plan which can be deployed on time.
Despite intensive climate negotiations, the planetary boundary was exceeded in 1990 and the temperature continues to rise unabated.
On the way to 2.7° we risk irreversible change
Many tipping elements in the Earth‘s system are close to their temperature thresholds. Once surpassed, a further increase in the average temperature of the Earth will become irreversible, with catastrophic consequences. Climate scientists declare 1° as the planetary boundary.
"Please help me, show me the roadmap for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves."
COP28 president Ahmed al-Jaber at an online event on 21 November hosted by She Changes Climate
Cutting-edge models
The Holocene Project team has assembled world-leading scientists and institutions to develop cutting-edge energy and carbon-sink models, considering a wide array of proven technologies and addressing social needs.
This Holocene Study will allow us to compute optimal collaborative paths to less than 350 ppm and 1 ° warming that are both economically and socially viable for 800 regions across the globe. We will propose these tailored strategies to key policymakers around the world, paving the way for comprehensive and effective social transition.
This kind of work has not yet been done on such a granular and global scale, but is absolutely necessary to facilitate the timely phase-out of fossil fuels and reduction of CO2 concentration, preventing irreversible climate breakdown.
The Holocene Study
The Holocene Study is a collaboration between some of the most capable researchers globally, with the objective to find a timely global, efficient, low investment pathway to
reduce the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere to safe levels below 350 ppm (climate safety) and
achieve a sustainable global society (clean energy prosperity) with zero emissions.
It is the only one of its kind pursuing a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm, while minimising the risks of the tipping points. It is also unique in having global net-zero emission targets for 2030, 2035 and 2040, which increases the probability of staying under 1,5° global warming.
The study will enable policy makers in all regions to implement accelerated zero emission roadmaps to 350 ppm incorporating:
100% clean, renewable energy in abundance for all regions of the world, not only for rich countries;
a circular economy with zero waste and zero emissions;
regenerative agriculture and forestry producing affordable, healthy food for everyone; storable and sustainable bioenergy; sustainable construction materials; and naturally sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere by photosynthesis.
The solar energy potential (23,000 TW) alone is more than 1,000 times the current energy consumption worldwide (16 TW). The combination of wind, solar and storage energy is already the cheapest energy available!
"The door is still open for a safe landing of humanity"
Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström at Senckenberg Distinguished Lecture in November 2023
The Holocene Project strives to be a transformative force in international negotiations.
By showcasing that global sustainable transformation is not only still possible but actually economically sensible, we aim to redefine the narrative and inspire positive action worldwide.
To achieve this, the Holocene Project needs an annual funding commitment of $2.1 million for 2024, and additionally $3,3 yearly for 2025-2029.
The Holocene Study compared to other studies
Today‘s most ambitious pathways aim for climate neutrality in 2045 or later, destabilizing the Earth climate system further beyond its planetary boundary of 1°.
Except for the Holocene Study, all others overshoot the planetary boundary of 350 ppm, risking irreversible catastrophic consequences. In addition, these studies neglect the socio-economic and socio-political challenges of these needed transitions.
Top 2% scientists in the team
Prof. C. Breyer
LUT University, Finland
Prof. C. von Hirschhausen
TU Berlin, Germany
Prof. D. Chiaramonti
Politecnico di Torino, Italy
Supported by top 2% scientists and a senior political advisor
Prof. E. Weber Ex Chief of Fraunhofer ISE, Germany
Prof. C. Kemfert DIW, Germany
Prof. M. Jacobson Stanford University USA
Prof. A. Blakers National University of Australia (ANU)
Hans-Josef Fell Member German Parliament 1998-2013